Industry Forecast Through 2030 — How COVID Reshaped Online Gambling and What Comes Next

Hold on — a quick reality check first: COVID didn’t create online gambling, but it turbocharged adoption in ways most analysts didn’t expect.
The pandemic forced rapid digital migration, pushing casual bettors online, accelerating app-first products, and exposing regulatory gaps; and those shifts set the stage for the next decade.
Here’s the practical value up front: if you operate in or use online betting services, this article gives you measurable trends, simple calculations, risk controls, and clear next steps to 2030.
Read this and you’ll be able to prioritise investments, compliance sails, and player-protection rules over the next five years, so you don’t overinvest in a fading tactic.
Next we’ll unpack the macro drivers behind those changes and what they mean financially and operationally for operators and players alike.

Wow — let’s start with the macro picture: global online gambling saw an adoption spike of roughly 20–35% in active accounts during 2020–2021 depending on the region, with Australia on the higher end for sports betting.
That surge shifted gross wagering volume (GWV) composition away from retail to digital channels by an estimated 10–15 percentage points in many markets, fundamentally changing cost structures and marketing returns.
Practically, customer acquisition channels switched from venue-based and paper marketing to digital performance marketing and in-app retention campaigns, which changes CAC and LTV math in ways you need to model.
If your CAC pre-COVID was $150 per active player and post-COVID it dropped to $90 but churn increased, you must recompute payback periods to avoid cashflow surprises—more on the formula later.
Next, we’ll look at three financial building blocks you should model in any forecast: CAC, churn, and average revenue per user (ARPU).

Key financial model: simple formulas to forecast 2025–2030

Hold on — math incoming, but it’s short and useful.
Basic model you can run in a spreadsheet: Annual Net Revenue = (Active Users) × ARPU — Marketing Spend — Compliance Costs — Payment Costs.
Active Users next year = Active Users this year × (1 — churn rate) + New Users acquired.
Acquisition Payback (months) = CAC / (Monthly ARPU × (1 — tax/fees)).
These three lines tell you whether growth is profitable or just top-line vanity.
Next I’ll show a worked mini-case to make this concrete for an Aussie app-style operator.

Quick case: “Mini-Dabble” operator — starting metrics in 2023: 50k active users, ARPU AU$120/year, CAC AU$80, churn 30%/year, payment & compliance costs ~10% of revenue.
Plugging in: Monthly ARPU ~ AU$10; acquisition payback = 80 / 10 = 8 months; with 30% churn, lifetime value (LTV) ~ ARPU / churn = 120 / 0.30 = AU$400; LTV/CAC = 5 — healthy by many standards.
But now stress-test for 2026: suppose churn drifts to 40% as competition increases and ARPU drops 10% due to margin compression; LTV becomes 108 / 0.40 = AU$270 and LTV/CAC = 3.4 — still okay but margin for error tightens.
This simple walk-through shows why operators who scaled aggressively during COVID face a 2024–2026 reckoning: retention is the profit lever, and you’ll want to fund retention tools accordingly.
Next we’ll examine how player behaviour (the supply side) changed and why that matters for retention tactics.

Player behaviour changes since COVID and implications

Something’s obvious: players who came online during lockdowns tend to be younger, more mobile-first, and more social in their betting habits.
They value quick payouts, intuitive UX, social sharing (copy bets), and low friction payments like PayID and Apple Pay — all features providers raced to improve during COVID.
However, these players also show higher impulsivity and shorter lifetimes unless operators invest in onboarding and responsible play nudges; that’s why retention spend matters more than acquisition today.
If you treat post-COVID cohorts the same as pre-COVID cohorts, your churn forecasts will be optimistic; instead, use cohort analysis to build retention curves by acquisition channel.
Next we’ll map regulatory responses that are shaping how operators can and cannot chase these cohorts.

On the regulatory front, governments reacted differently post-pandemic — a mix of faster enforcement in some areas and slower policy evolution in others.
Australia tightened KYC and AML checks in several states and accelerated responsible-gambling frameworks, increasing compliance costs per account by an estimated AU$3–6 annually for operators who scale responsibly.
This matters when you build forecasts: compliance costs are not fixed overheads you can ignore; they scale with active users and with the intensity of regulatory scrutiny.
Operators that automate KYC with vendors (GreenID, Equifax) see higher upfront but lower marginal costs, which improves unit economics if churn is managed; we’ll compare cost approaches next.
Before the comparison table, a quick aside on technology evolution and its ROI implications.

Technology, product and where you should invest

My gut says: invest in retention tech, not flashy acquisition.
Specifically, spend on personalization engines, faster withdrawals, and verifiable fairness/audit trails to build trust with regulators and players.
AI-driven personalization can lift ARPU by 5–12% in many operators; that delta often outperforms the ROI of a 20% increase in ad spend.
These investments also reduce churn by creating stickier experiences, which compounds revenue benefits over time.
Now a short comparison table of three approaches to KYC & player onboarding costs and outcomes.

Approach	Typical Cost per New Account (AU$)	Speed	Compliance Strength
In-house manual KYC	10–25	Slow (hours–days)	Variable; high manual oversight
Third-party automated (GreenID/Equifax)	3–8	Fast (minutes)	High; auditable
Hybrid (auto + manual for flags)	5–12	Mostly fast	Very high; balanced

That table shows why many modern operators choose third-party verification—lower marginal cost and faster onboarding—but remember: flagged cases still need manual review.
Flagged case rates can be 1–5% depending on market and ad channel, which means headcount must scale with volume spikes to avoid cashout delays and regulatory complaints.
Next we’ll discuss marketing mix shifts you should expect to 2030 and how to budget for sustainable growth.

Marketing mix changes to 2030 — what works and what’s expensive

On one hand, paid search and programmatic CPMs spiked during COVID as ad demand surged, making CAC inflationary; on the other hand, organic and social community-driven acquisition became more valuable.
User-generated content, influencer partnerships and copy-bet/social features give lower CAC but require investment in community moderation and product features.
A good rule: cap paid CAC to a target LTV/CAC of at least 3; if you can’t hit that target in current market conditions, scale slower and push retention initiatives first.
This raises the question of which KPIs to track daily versus weekly — a practical checklist follows to help teams focus.
After the checklist, we’ll cover common mistakes operators and players make and how to avoid them.

Quick Checklist — Priorities for operators and informed players

• Daily: track deposits, withdrawals latency, flagged KYC rate, and live odds errors — fix issues within 24 hours to preserve trust.
• Weekly: cohort retention curves, ARPU by channel, and net promoter score (NPS) for app users.
• Monthly: LTV/CAC by campaign, regulatory complaints, and financial stress tests for high payout scenarios.
• Quarterly: tech audits (RNG, fairness), third-party vendor reviews, and re-assess responsible-gambling tooling effectiveness.
• Annually: scenario planning to model shocks (market closures, tighter regulations, bank PSP limits).

Follow this checklist and you’ll be in a much better position to spot a deterioration early and adjust spend or product features accordingly.
Next, let’s cover common mistakes and simple mitigation tactics I’ve seen in operators and players since COVID.

Common Mistakes and How to Avoid Them

Observation: chasing growth with lax controls is a recurrent mistake.
Expansion without automated compliance leads to manual backlogs, delayed withdrawals, and regulator attention; avoid that by building scaling rules into your onboarding flow.
Another common error: assuming post-COVID cohorts behave like legacy users — instead, split cohorts and tailor retention offers.
Players often make mistakes too, like chasing losses after the short-term excitement of in-play betting; that’s where education nudges and loss-limits reduce harm and long-term churn.
Next, a short mini-FAQ that answers three practical questions many novices ask.

At this point you may be wondering who to trust for hands-on reviews and local Aussie-focused details — if you want a local, app-first viewpoint and comparisons tailored for Australian punters and operators, check this resource for more context and product notes: dabbleaussie.com official.
That resource compiles mobile-first UX notes, payment flows, and responsible gaming links that are directly applicable to modelling and user journeys in Australia, which complements the forecasts here.
In the same vein, operators should benchmark against public filings and registry data to validate assumptions rather than relying on anecdote alone.
Now a final practical section summarising the 2024–2030 roadmap and actionable steps you can take today.

Actionable Roadmap to 2030 (3‑step plan)

Step 1 — Stabilise: implement automated KYC, speed up withdrawals, and enforce reality checks in-app; this reduces regulatory and reputational risk and improves retention metrics immediately.
Step 2 — Optimise: run cohort experiments to find the most profitable acquisition channels and invest in product features that lift ARPU by personalization and social engagement without increasing harm.
Step 3 — Scale responsibly: automate compliance scaling, plan for higher compliance unit costs, and keep LTV/CAC thresholds conservative while exploring adjacent markets or product lines.
If you follow this path you’ll keep acquisition channels sustainable while maximising lifetime value and reducing complaint risk into 2030.
Before we close, here’s one more practical pointer for players and small operators about where to find local, app-focused intelligence.

For Australian readers wanting app-first product notes and clarity on mobile UX, payments and quick verification flows, a practical source that walks through those details is the dabbleaussie.com official site which includes local contact and product notes.
Use such local resources to validate assumptions about payment speeds, OSKO/PayID behaviours, and local KYC flags — these operational details materially affect player experience and churn.
Finally, a short responsible-gambling reminder and closing perspective on how to think about COVID’s legacy to 2030.
We’ll end with sources and an about-the-author note to help you dig deeper if you want to model scenarios for your product or personal play.

Responsible Gambling: 18+. Betting should be entertainment only; never wager money you cannot afford to lose. If you feel you need help, contact your local gambling support services (e.g., Gambling Help Online in Australia) or use in-app self-exclusion and deposit limits.
This article is informational and not financial or legal advice; always consult a professional for investment or regulatory decisions. This closing note also previews practical sources below for further verification.

Sources

Industry adoption benchmarks and cohort insights are compiled from public market reports, regulator releases (NT/SA), and operator annual disclosures where available; for hands-on, local app notes consult vendor and verification provider pages (Equifax/GreenID) and the Australian Gambling Research Centre for behavioural studies.
Use these sources to triangulate metrics before finalising any financial model, and remember that local rules vary by state and can change rapidly.

About the Author

Experienced product and operations consultant for mobile wagering platforms with a decade of work in Australasian markets, combining operator-side growth experience and hands-on compliance implementation.
I’ve worked on retention experiments, KYC automation, and responsible-gambling tooling for both startups and regulated operators; my perspective here is practical and rooted in those projects, which is why the guidance focuses on measurable levers rather than platitudes.
If you want a simple spreadsheet model or a sanity-check on your LTV/CAC assumptions, reach out through professional channels and include your cohort data for a faster review.